Pakistan And The Qatar Crisis

The breach amid Qatar and its Gulf neighbors may affectation difficult choices for Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Following the continuing row that has seen Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, and even the Maldives formally sever their ties with Qatar, Islamic Republic of Pakistan has found itself in associate degree unlikely diplomatic fix.

It was solely a few of weeks past that Pakistan was prominently shunned at the capital of Saudi Arabia summit, prompting rumors that former Army Chief Raheel Sharif would pull out of the Saudi-led Muslim military alliance that he commands. to handle the growing criticism at home, capital of Pakistan even urged that its participation within the Saudi-led alliance wasn’t final nonetheless, citing anti-Iran rhetoric and also the succeeding sectarian tinges of the coalition, because the concern. however there’s very little doubt that it had been the humiliation conjointly musical organization by the us and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that pushed a rethink – or a minimum of a façade thence.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif received by King Salman bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud upon arrival at Arab-Islamic-American Summit at Riyadh (May 21, 2017).

It is laborious to imagine capital of Pakistan not being cognizant that the Saudi coalition is, for all intents and functions, a Salafi North Atlantic Treaty Organization designed to counter the “Shia Crescent” spearheaded by Iran.” however when finally acquiescing to compromising ties with Tehran, in exchange for the Saudi petrodollars, capital of Pakistan currently faces another stiff question, at the foremost harmful of moments.

The existence of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) implies that Pakistan, just like the remainder of the globe, has treated all member countries as associate degree extension of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. not like relations with Iran, that have forever had the weapon system of Saudi-exacted cost hanging over them, any agreements with different GCC states are negotiated and signed with none such issues.

But currently with a doubtless prolonged Saudi-Qatar rift, Pakistan may need to face a alarming alternative sooner instead of later. the solution would have severe ramifications for Islamabad, particularly vis-à-vis the multipronged security and energy crises that the country finds itself in.

Last year Pakistan signed a 15-year gas offer agreement with Qatar. Islamabad would import 3.75 million tonnes of liquefied fossil fuel (LNG) annually and add a pair of,000 megawatts of power to the national grid. Not solely was the agreement with Qatargas-2 – the biggest LNG producer globally – about to singlehandedly nearly divide the country’s electricity deficiency and quantity for over eighty five percent of Pakistan’s LNG import capability, it conjointly diversifies Pakistan’s energy combine.

In addition, it had been only last month that Qatar formally expressed interest in $1.5 billion Karachi-Lahore LNG pipeline project to provide gas to geographical area. national capital was set to chase away Moscow’s interest within the project when the deal was verbally in agreement with Qatari emeer tribal sheik Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani throughout his visit to Pakistan in Gregorian calendar month this year.

In terms of security, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia earmarking another enemy within the region would mean further demand for Pakistani troops. At a time once the state remains aloof from support its defense against native Muslim teams, adding another conflict to be militarily concerned in would smack of skew priorities, and more underscore Riyadh’s clout over Islamabad.

Furthermore, with the Muslim Military Alliance already self-manifesting as a sham, a fellow member state being sidelined would affirm the coalition as associate degree assimilation of al-Saud’s personal private security force – particularly with another member state, Yemen, being unrelentingly bombed.

Pakistan, that is already enclosed by a hostile neighborhood accusatory it of harboring terrorist act and successively threatening attacks within its territory, will ill-afford the rupture of ties with another state within the geographic area. The problem would multiply for Pakistan if, additionally to Iran, Qatar attracts nearer to Turkey because it appearance for retailers to bridge the economic gap that severance ties with the Gulf neighbors would cause. national capital has supported Islamabad on multiple fronts in recent times.

For Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, UN agency has been instrumental in establishing Pakistan’s ties with Turkey, the temporal order of the Qatar crisis couldn't are worse. With the Qatari royal house vying to bail the Sharif family come in the continuing investigation over the Panama Papers corruption scandal, Sharif cannot distance himself from national capital, particularly with the 2018 general elections less a year away.

On the opposite hand, over Iran, Turkey, Qatar, or the other state, Nawaz Sharif is in person indebted to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for saving his life throughout the Musharraf regime, because the then-deposed prime minister found a secure area for exile within the Kingdom.

With the interests of the civilian government and also the military institution, that enjoys a major share of Saudi funding, orienting  with Riyadh, it’s onerous to imagine Islamabad doing something that will be understood as support for national capital. Pakistan would therefore look to stretch out its neutrality over the conflict for as long as attainable.

What may more complicate matters for capital of Pakistan is that if China, when maintaining neutrality in most regional feuds, is pushed into choosing sides within the conflict, particularly if Washington allies with Riyadh of course. For Islamabad, finding China associate degreed Saudi in opposing alliances would be an new nightmare that will formally sound the death knell for its policy rulebook.

There’s plenty over power offer and state security at stake for Pakistan.